Self Storage Industry Trends

Isaac Hiatt on the Current State of Play in the Self Storage Market

Which factors underpin the boom of self storage development in the past few years?

A storage facility, if managed and operated correctly, can be one of the most solid real estate investments among commercial assets.

Facilities usually have very low cap rates, which makes them great for long term investment and mitigation of risk. Many investors outside of the industry began to take notice of storage and saw it as defensive reinforcement to their portfolios. As a result of this, many of these outside investors began to invest in newly built facilities. Not to be out-done, existing operators who were looking to expand their footprints in markets they already operated in or new markets they wanted to get into found opportunities for new developments as well.

Other factors to consider during this time would include storage developers partnering with operators to fulfill certificate of occupancy deals, bankruptcies of big box retail chains making convertible square footage readily available nationwide, and because of the perceived safety of the investment, lenders were willing to finance these new developments. Couple all this with increased demand drivers in both large and secondary markets, and it made for a perfect storm of record new supply both in number of deliveries and square footage added between 2017-2020.

What makes certain metros/areas more likely to see developers build more?

Generally, any market that is seeing positive population growth, has good economic factors such as low unemployment, and is seen as being underpenetrated regarding net rentable square feet per capita, would most likely see new storage developments, expansions to existing facilities or both.

However, given the hyper-local nature of self storage, even in markets that don't have any of those factors on a macro level, it is still possible to find pockets or submarkets that would be ideal for more storage to be added. It is a matter of knowing the demographics of your customer base, and what your current and future competition is within a 1-, 3- and 5-mile radius.

Which are the sources for self storage demand?

The main drivers for self storage demand are not only population growth but also population density. In areas where population is dense, the demand for apartment rentals greatly increases rental rates for renters as well as the cost per square foot for buyers. This typically favors self storage as it positions itself as the better and cheaper option compared to renting another bedroom or purchasing a larger home.

Also, probably the most important aspect is that there must be good economic factors to drive storage demand. Simply put, to rent storage, tenants must be able to afford storage rates. Factors such as household income, low unemployment, and many employers of diverse sectors in an area are positive indicators that demand for storage will be there.

Whether a facility's clientele is long- or short-term residential, businesses, military or students, operators must be aware of the drivers of demand in their customer base and know how to market themselves accordingly.

What major economic events affected the self storage industry?

Self storage is often touted, mostly by some within the industry, as recession proof. While I won't be so bold to say that, there is some good evidence to suggest it could be recession resistant. Most recently, the pandemic was one of the greatest obstacles that the self storage industry has ever faced. There were too many unknowns about consumer behavior or restrictions on operating facilities at the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020. However, once storage was deemed an essential service and health and safety protocols were put into action coupled with contactless rental technologies, storage simply thrived.

Demand for storage increased for several different reasons. Whether it was working from home, studying from home, people moving in or out of markets, or offices needing to store furniture long term, people needed extra room in their homes or for their businesses to accommodate this change. Since Q3 2020, all the storage REITs have reported record high occupancy, and as a result, rental rates are optimal and could see continued growth into the typically busy leasing season of 2021. What started out as dark storm clouds for the industry eventually gave way to sunny skies.

What direction do you think self storage development is headed in?

While 2020 was a year like no other, development continued to increase in the sector and at Yardi Matrix we saw the year complete with third-highest deliveries and square footage added annually since 2017, which I think going into the pandemic exceeded all expectations. With that said, the number of projects abandoned was slightly up compared to 2019, and many projects were delayed.

As a result, many of the projects that were delayed in 2020 we should see completed in 2021. The next year is gearing up to be another strong year of new supply delivered. Looking at our current pipeline we see a robust number of projects both planned and under construction, the majority of which we expect to see completed. While we are not expecting a record setting number of new stores and square footage delivered, there will be enough new supply in 2021 that current operators will have to take notice as new competition comes online in their markets.

Looking further ahead, we could start to see a decline in deliveries starting in 2022. While there could be a decline in deliveries, I would suspect that it will be more of a plateau rather plummeting off a cliff.

I would also say that in the coming years we could see a major shift in where developers are looking to either build new facilities, or conversions will shift from the larger national markets into some of the more fringe secondary or tertiary markets. We are seeing this trend begin to take place in our own data at Yardi Matrix and expect it to continue as the hunt for the next great market opportunity continues.

Doug Ressler on the Current State of Play in the Self Storage Market

Which factors underpin the boom of self storage development in the past few years?

The self storage industry continued to see exceedingly strong performance through 2021, as short-term demand drivers boosted by the pandemic continued to contribute to performance. Street rates are still rising across the country, with national rates in July for non-climate-controlled units surpassing previously recorded record highs.

In addition, storage REITs reported exceptionally strong second quarters, seeing record-setting occupancies and improved outlooks for the remainder of the year.

However, as both developer interest in the asset type and the new-supply pipeline keeps growing, the industry may begin to face stronger supply headwinds in the long term.

What changes have you been seeing regarding where self storage developments are being constructed?

As a result of changing market forces, the ideal facility and size (building square footage) of a project depends on several variables including the existing market supply, the available land, building costs, zoning restrictions, and the specific economics of each proposal. Many of the demographic and location parameters for successful self storage projects are like retail requirements. Thus, self storage developers increasingly find themselves competing against grocery/drugstore-anchored shopping centers for good sites. Nearly one-third of all customers choose a property after driving by it, so visibility and access, with traffic counts greater than 20,000 a day, are desired.

Increased land costs have forced developers to build up, particularly in urban markets where land tracts of the four or more acres necessary for single-story developments are nonexistent.

For today's market, a multi-story project can be built on as little as one acre, and the economics tend to work best for projects that can justify between 50,000 and 70,000 rentable SF (commonly divided among one or two buildings).

Once the exception, newer technologies in security features such as individual door alarms and video cameras are now standard, to meet the demand of prospective tenants.

What are the strongest self storage markets in 2021?

Chicago in July recorded impressive rate performance for 10x10 NON-CC units, with average rates for this unit type reaching $120, the highest value recorded by Yardi Matrix. Year-over-year, rates for this unit type rose 20.0%, while monthly rates for the same unit type increased 1.7% from June to July.

Since January 2021, street rates in Charleston for 10x10 NON-CC units rose 9.7% to an average of $102 in July, while rates for 10x10 CC units fared even better over this period, increasing 12.0% over seven months to an average of $131. Although still considered to be over-penetrated by self storage, Charleston seems to be helped by the demand of a growing population that's enough to withstand the downward pressure felt on rates in recent years.

Austin has also been experiencing a storage surplus, with existing inventory equal to 10.0 NRSF per capita. However, like Charleston, Austin has seen street rates rebound in 2021. Year-over-year, rates for 10x10 NON-CC units grew 12.5% while rates for 10x10 CC units rose a significant 18.8%. Average rates for 10x10 NON-CC ($108) and CC ($139) units recovered in July to levels not seen in Austin since 2016.

What major economic events affected the self storage industry?

The major economic events driving self storage depend on the impact of factors such as interest rates, new development, consumer and demographic trends, and overall market fundamentals. We are seeing an increase in move-ins and vacates which have recently been very low by historical standards.

What direction do you think self storage development is headed in?

We have seen a slight uptick in storage development nationwide. In July, the amount of self storage square footage under construction or in the planning stages across the nation was equivalent to 8.5% of the existing inventory, a 20-basis-point increase from June: 26 under construction and 24 planned projects were added to the national pipeline in the month. Development may continue to accelerate as developers become more motivated by the asset type's continued strong performance.

The New York metropolitan area once again led the top markets for development activity in July, with projects under construction or in the planning stages representing the equivalent of 18.3% of existing stock. Developers are likely drawn to the metro for its long-term absorption potential, with available storage stock offering only 3.6 NRSF per capita.

Orlando was the only top market to see a decrease in development activity month-over-month, a minor 10-basis-point drop. In July, the metro's storage properties under-construction or in-the-planning stages equaled a substantial 11.4% of existing stock.

Cap rates for stabilized, institutional-quality assets in the top 50 MSAs are in the 4%-5% range, and secondary market cap rates are not far behind. There has also been a renewed interest in Certificate of Occupancy and lease-up deals, and new development seems to be gaining momentum after a very brief slowdown during the pandemic. Self storage values are at all-time highs, and the chances of cap rates going up - with property values going down - appear to be significantly greater than further cap rate decline.

Jeff Adler on the Current State of Play in the Self Storage Market

Which factors underpin the boom of self storage development in the past few years?

Storage development really boomed from 2014-2018 before starting to tail off. A lot of the development was based on favorable lending terms, access to capital, and demand for the asset class, as it was one of the first to recover from the GFC. It is also cheaper and easier to build, and for a time, it was easy to permit, allowing for quick and seamless development.

Do you think there's a connection between self storage development and multifamily construction?

Storage developers have tended to build around pockets of strong multifamily growth. In the boom years of 2011-2018, Austin, DFW, Houston, Denver, Nashville and Phoenix were all at or near the top of both multifamily and storage development rankings on both a percentage and absolute basis.

What most tends to attract self storage developers to an area?

Low penetration, or existing stock, often attracts storage developers. Demand drivers such as job growth and migration growth are also attractive attributes that developers look at. Finally, the local regulation/friendliness to storage will impact a developer's decision to build.

Recently there has been an increasing hesitancy or resistance on the part of municipalities to approve storage building permits as some municipalities see them as low tax generating property, public eye-sores, or weak employment generators.

What major economic events affected the self storage industry?

When times are good, elevated consumption and consumer spending drive demand and utilization of storage. In times of economic contraction, households are often downsizing or relocating, forcing them to use storage as they figure out their living situations. Periods of high domestic migration almost always drive storage demand.

What direction do you think self storage development is headed in?

Self storage development is steady but showing signs of increasing right now. The pipeline has edged upward over the past few months but remains between 8% and 9% of stock. As the historically strong fundamentals remain, expect to see that pipeline increase and more storage developments come to fruition. As the pandemic, work from home, and limited services expenditure continues, storage performance will likely continue, which in turn will lead to more active and eager developers.

Max Levinston on the Current State of Play in the Self Storage Market

What are the main drivers of the self storage industry?

Investors are drawn to self storage because of the lucrative returns and the low cost of management and expenses. It can also be highly automated, allowing investors to own facilities that are operated remotely.

Which factors have underpinned the boom of self storage development in the past few years?

With more people downsizing and finding more affordable places to live, there seems to be a steady demand for storage space as people's lifestyles change.

Where does demand for self storage come from?

Part of the demand is American culture, having more than we need. It's amazing to see new storage facilities constantly being built, sometimes directly across the street from a well-established facility with over 250 units.

How do you envision the future of the self storage industry, in the medium- and long-term?

Facilities that offer larger storage units, particularly with a connected office unit, can be a great starting option for businesses as they grow. We see a tremendous demand for mini-warehouses as the options for warehouse space less than 1,000 sq. ft. are extremely scarce.

In the long term I also foresee lots of consolidation. More mom-and-pop facilities are being acquired left and right, and larger institutions are merging. This will likely lead to the compression of cap rates as more investors will be fighting over opportunities. The secret is out about self-storage and it's here to stay.

Elaine Worzala on the Current State of Play in the Self Storage Market

What are the main drivers of the self storage industry?

Self storage has many different drivers, but expensive housing is a major factor as the more expensive per square foot the less people can afford so they need to get storage to store their extra "stuff".

Demographics are also really important. Empty nesters that are downsizing often get storage to hold their extra "stuff" telling themselves they are saving it for their children when they get their homes. Also, if there are a lot of elderly in the area they may move into assisted living or other retirement communities and family members will put their extra "stuff" in storage to not upset them. And, if there are college kids in the area, some students store their things when they go away for the summer.

In addition, the rental rates as well as the supply of industrial/warehouse space can impact demand for self storage. If self storage is a lot less expensive some companies will store their supplies and materials in self storage facilities rather than rent a warehouse.

Finally, the rise of e-commerce could also impact demand for self storage. That is, a small retail store that goes online could use a self-storage facility to hold their inventory.

What major economic events affected the self storage industry?

COVID-19 and its impact on e-commerce and businesses' ability to pay rent for a more traditional storage facility or retail location.

A decrease in mortgage rates which caused a major increase in demand for housing making it more expensive.

Disruptions in the supply chain that have influenced businesses to stock up more and not do as much just-in-time inventory.

How do you envision the future of the self storage industry, in the medium- and long-term?

It seems as though there are new and much better self storage facilities coming online. They are temperature controlled, easy access, pleasant places. This will likely result in a decrease in demand for the lower quality older space that are typically found on the edge of cities or in not so nice areas. So, values of the older stock will likely fall.

This new space also has much better linkages. In the long run, this could be a good reuse of some of the real estate that is no longer needed for retail, such as some of the big boxes that have shut down. Given the greater certainty of the cashflow with self storage, there are limited expenses and for the most part they can be predicted, and I think self storage will continue to be a smart investment for some investors. Particularly the newer type of space. If you own the older type of product you could have increased vacancy, a drop in rental rates, a rise in capitalization rates due to the increased risk and ultimately a potential drop in value.